How the 2030 Census Will Better Represent Minorities in Higher Education
By Simra Ahmed
Since 1790, the U.S. Government has collected census data every ten years. In 2030, three main changes will occur in the U.S. Census to create a more accurate population count and an improved picture of the country's diversity. This blog post will explain the changes happening, the intended benefits and drawbacks in the context of higher education, and some proactive steps colleges can take to promote a higher census participation rate. Let’s get into it!
What Changes Are Occurring?
Specificity is the theme of the 2030 census. Joseph Stepansky of Al Jazeera related that advocates of communities from the Middle East and North Africa have used the word “invisible" to describe how they are categorized in the census. Moving forward with more specificity in the 2030 census questioning prevents the perpetuation of these“invisible races,” which exist in the real world but are given no or inaccurate weight in policymaking, resources, government representation, and decisions. When the government can count students for who they are racially and ethnically, resources, funding, and representation in Congress can be decided accordingly.
The first racial category we will see a shift in is the “white” category. All former censuses counted “Middle Eastern North African” or MENA, groups as white. This ultimately caused minority subgroups to be labeled and treated as a majority when this is not always true. In an NPR article written by Hansi Lo Wang, it is said that people from MENA countries also do not consider themselves white. This overgeneralized grouping resulted in overlooked communities without potentially beneficial funding, resources, or representation in Congress and policymaking.
Specificity will also extend to the “Hispanic or Latino” category. The previous censuses first inquired about whether an individual possessed Hispanic or Latino origins, followed by another question about their race. This separate question created confusion as some identified Latino as their race rather than ethnicity and would then select the “other race” box or no box at all. This ultimately perpetuated more “invisible races” by resulting in an undercount of the group. As a result, the government’s ability to provide for the group became extremely limited. In making Hispanic or Latino a race, the intention is to clarify the data and gain more insight into the origins of those who identify as Latino in the USA, especially given that this group is currently the largest minority in the USA.
Lastly, the 2030 census will allow the option to select multiple racial and ethnic group boxes. This, again, will enable the government to capture various subgroups and provide necessary funding, representation, and resources.
How Statistics and Real Life Tell Different Stories for MENA Students
While some argue that adding the MENA Category is a positive move, others say that individuals from the MENA region do not need their own category. According to a 2015 Migration Policy Institute Report, the consensus is that foreign-born MENA region individuals have a “strong educational profile of the MENA population in the United States and their concentration in professional occupations. Such findings contribute to our understanding of the socioeconomic characteristics and contributions of the MENA population within the larger context of immigration and the U.S. labor market.” As a result, some may say that the MENA group is less likely to benefit significantly from higher education benefits. However, it is important to note that studies have overwhelmingly studied foreign-born MENA populations.
Statistics should not negate people’s lived experiences. While the statistics for MENA groups tell a story of educational and occupational success, it is essential to note that not being represented in government policymaking for over a century inevitably has real inner and outer world consequences. We can only correct a problem if we know it exists, and many times, we can only know that a problem exists if we carefully examine and acknowledge all groups.
MENA populations are generally considered to have physical differentiators from white populations. Members of this population see themselves as non-white as they speak different languages, have cultural names, and generally have a wider array of skin tones within the population. According to a research study published in 2024, some distinguishable physical features MENA Americans see in themselves are “skin color, darker undertones, eyebrows, eye color, eye shape, hair color, curly hair, hairiness, nose shape, dress, headscarf, the hijab, and even demeanor.” The hijab indeed distinguishes many MENA Americans as Muslim, which brings us to the next section about stereotypes that MENA students face in higher education.
MENA students have to silently battle against stereotypes and a plethora of discrete and non-discrete Anti-Arab Sentiments in American Society. After 9/11, a common stereotype of MENA individuals, the majority of whom are Muslim, was to be labeled as a terrorist. Many major U.S. media outlets are also complicit in facilitating these stereotypes. In a 2022 article by The Conversation, a study was conducted by political scientists on the portrayal of Muslims in the media. In a sample of 250,000 articles selected from 1996-2021 in the U.S., the researchers found that articles mentioning Muslims were negative 84 percent of the time versus articles about other minority religions, including Judaism, Catholicism, and Hinduism, which were only negative half the time. This trend was observed in the United States and similar studies conducted in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. This shows that stereotypes transcend borders, too.
You may ask yourself what this has to do with the census and higher education. First, the emotional and mental health of MENA students is more vulnerable than those of the “white” category they fall into. Students who fall into the white category likely don’t carry the worry that they will be labeled as terrorists, worry about being the victim of a racialized hate crime, or that their families’ lives and homes in MENA regions are experiencing devastating losses. Inevitably, this puts MENA students in a different and vulnerable position. With the current census, the government is limited in providing resources for these students, even in a world displaying the emotional magnitude through protests and encampments within higher education institutions. There is resistance to the emotions, likely resulting in further feelings of hopelessness and isolation.
The social determinants of MENA physical health have also not been studied historically since MENA was blended in with the white group, which Senator Rashida Tlaib sought to take action on in Congress. The NIA council reported that the MENA group was disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 due to various factors, including “large numbers of immigrants and refugees, poverty, multigenerational households and high rates of hypertension, diabetes, and heart disease.” The above quote reveals that MENA populations may have a predisposition to chronic illnesses in their genetics. This shows the intersection between health and education and that MENA populations may have struggles in the future that relate to the higher incidence of chronic illnesses in older generations, which could make it more challenging to complete their higher education journey successfully.
What Are The Implications For Higher Education?
We are going to zoom out of the MENA student lens and zoom in on how the census impacts higher education in a more general sense.
According to an article published by the University of Nevada News Center, “The census impacts college students directly in many ways. Information taken from the census is used to help determine federal student loans and Pell grants. It affects campus funding, which impacts things like campus improvements. It’s also used to make decisions regarding legislation that affects students.” These grants, combined with the positive impacts of the 2030 census changes, have the potential to create positive long-term outcomes.
Pell Grants
Pell Grants marked a monumental change in higher education in the U.S. and were a part of the Educational Amendments of 1972. These amendments eliminated financial discrimination based on sex and were the first federal aid program without a repayment requirement. They also significantly affected the proportion of students who enrolled in college after high school. Pell Grants are still a vital educational income supplement to eligible underserved higher education students.
The Pell Grant was a barrier-breaking solution for many students who sought higher education. Michelle Asha Cooper of the US Department of Education told the College Success Foundation that “young People are priced out of education. This reveals a disparity that primarily affects low-income, disadvantaged black and brown communities.”Statistics by the PEW Research Center also reveal that Hispanic and Black people are less likely to graduate college than their white and Asian counterparts and are the largest recipients of Pell Grants. Studying these groups more closely is imperative as the diversity within the US continues to change.
Although it is also said that Pell Grant amounts have yet to rise in alignment with inflation in the article, the changes in the 2030 census will allow various agencies and the government to examine historically disadvantaged groups, identify new trends, and provide more grants and federal funding in these areas. After the 2030 census, looking closely at Hispanics or Latino “race” and determining patterns across and within degree completion within the identified origin groups could help determine future Pell Grants and other federal loan programs. If certain disparities are discovered and systematically addressed, this could lead to more people of Hispanic and Latino origin finishing their degrees and creating generational wealth, which is statistically higher when one’s parents can complete their higher education journey.
What Can Higher Education Institutions Do To Bridge Gaps?
Fortunately, colleges themselves also have the potential to facilitate the positive benefits that the 2030 census changes have forecasted. In a video by Campus Compact titled “2020 and Higher Education,” Northwestern University is cited as an example of an institution that facilitated census participation and reaped the benefits in 2010. By involving the University President, allocating funds for friendly competition, and setting up an overall campaign strategy, the result was that the University had an astonishing response rate of 98 percent for those living in on-campus residences. The result was a whopping 4.3 million dollars of funding to the city of Evanston, which otherwise had poor census participation, as revealed by Natalie Furlett, Campus Compact’s Senior Director of Member and Student Engagement.
The census takes data based on where one resides on April 1, and it is imperative to understand the opportunity and potential of this fact. Since most higher education universities are still in the spring semester at this time, it is critical for higher education institutions to think about the bigger picture and create relationships with local community stakeholders to account for groups that are less likely to engage with the college directly year-round. Robert Franco, who is the Director of Office for Institutional Effectiveness at the University of Hawaiʻi Kapiʻolani Community College and a Cultural Anthropologist, told Campus Compact that the census gets “demographers thinking in a decadal perspective.” Robert worked with Pacific Islander Populations in the 1980s to take census data and turn it into appropriate programming and funding for the group. Overall, for some communities, we can only account for them and their needs if we get to know those close to them. In the context of higher education, building relationships with university religious groups and local mosques, synagogues, and churches could be another way to reach multiple students. Creating these relationships between universities and groups now is building a bridge to more enriched and equitable lives.
What Happens Next? Are The Changes Good or Bad in the Higher Education World?
A positive correlation exists between one completing their higher education and whether their child will complete theirs. The byproduct of this cycle is our amazing friend, generational wealth. This friend is the gift that keeps on giving. While that is universally true, one must also understand that different minoritized groups have different experiences within higher education. As the U.S. Census stands right now, capturing these experiences is difficult due to the previous structure of the census not counting MENA people as a separate category and being set up in a confusing way that resulted in an undercount of Latinos and subgroups within the new racial category. We want to see people’s experiences for what they are so they can be given what they need to succeed in their higher education journey and beyond.
Statistics summarize the consensus, but it is still imperative to hone in on the external factors that can change the story. Statistically, MENA students have strong employment and educational outcomes. Yet, MENA students face other societal factors and stereotypes that still work against them, which can lead to discrimination. In the short term, their college experiences face the challenges of battling stereotypes and isolation due to the anti-Muslim and often anti-Arab policies and practices in American society. For Latino students, accurately understanding how many people identify as Hispanic or Latino will help with funding and programming for this group. Getting statistics for these students will help complete these stories. Having too much data is always less consequential than having too little.
As these changes occur, federal agencies can tangibly identify their impacts rather than forecast them. Colleges should advertise and teach these changes early on in various languages so that when 2030 comes around, it will simply be an act of selecting the box rather than understanding it. They must also communicate with various community stakeholders to spread the message to harder-to-reach students. Ignorance is not bliss in the case of finding out the identity of those in our country, as the implications are systematic, political, and long-term. Accurate information is the key to breaking barriers and promoting equity.